2010 MONEYLIST FACTS AND FIGURES

I still haven’t finished putting together what I think will be my most accurate estimation of the 2010 PGA Tour moneylist, but here is some stuff I threw together over the weekend.

AVG MONEY
A breakdown of all PGA Tournaments using the simple formula total purse divided by number of players in the field:

ROUNDS PLAYED BY SKILL
As you can see, I broke it down into four levels.

Cash Grabs: These are the WGC’s and two playoff events where there are limited fields, no cuts and guaranteed money. It’s a pretty big advantage to make it to one of these events.

Big Purse: These are your majors, PLAYERS, first two playoff events and the invitationals. Bigger purses and generally smaller fields.

Average: Run of the mill tournaments

Weak/Opposite Field: All the tournaments opposite majors and WGC’s as well as most of the fall series.

Not surprisingly, there is a strong correlation between the chances that a player gets in each of the events and their relative skill level(judged by my two year rankings). I used number of rounds played in these events as the judge of opportunities in each event.


TRUE ROUNDS PLAYED

Again, not surprisingly players that are very good play less. But, that is somewhat deceiving in terms of projecting moneylist finishing positions because of the varying purse levels. Since on average a “cash grab” tournament is worth about 2.8 times per round as much as a big purse tournament that needs to be factored in.

Again, broken down by skill level, with the big purse average set as the average tournament.

So, in effect not only are the better players better at golf(duh!) they also get more opportunities to prove that in terms of money made. That was a pretty big weakness in my first estimation, which assumed all players had an equal opportunity to win money.

I’ll have my full guesses at this sometime later in the week.

2010 SOUTH AFRICA OPEN RD 1

PRELIMINARY LOOK AT 2010 MONEYLIST

I quickly assembled these odds for winning the 2010 PGA Tour Moneylist.

There are a few assumptions:
-Everyone plays the same amount of Rounds.
-Everyone plays in tournaments with the same purse.
-Tiger Woods does not count.

Obviously, those aren’t true(I plan on looking into this more on my first college football less Saturday), but if they were, I think this would be a pretty good estimation.

This is far from perfect, but I think I can come up with some pretty good estimations based off this and factoring in a few variables over the weekend.

For the record, Using this same methodology, Tiger Woods would be about 79% to win the 2010 Money List.

2010 SOUTH AFRICAN OPEN TOP-20

TOP-200 DEC 14, 2009

2010 DUNHILL CHAMPIONSHIP RD 3

A little late on these, but if you were wondering:

2010 DUNHILL CHAMPIONSHIP RD 2

I’d be careful with these as I’m pretty sure Edoardo Molinari needs a big adjustment for reasons that will be explained later.